Last week (1.12.08 - 7.12.08) the expectations of war between India and Pakistan recovered. The theme of «Just on the point of banging!» is popular among quite prosperous citizens in stable countries. This is a result of the lack of adrenaline. But it is not about that. Of course, the peaceful process on the state of Jammu and Kashmir has been deranged after the attacks in Mumbai. Of course, after the resignation of Musharraf and coming to power of the democratic government Pakistan hardly controls the situation not only in the country, but in Islamabad as well. And the current crisis does not add stability. Of the requested $ 10 billion the IMF has allocated only 7.6 billion to Islamabad, and with its famous conditions. Ms. Rice as usual reproached it with poor care for terrorists. It seems that the division of Pakistan is not far off, if not supported by its army, which is said to consist of the Taliban. The forecasts of imminent war between Pakistan and India, through the mediation of the United States do not take into account the position of China, which turns this explosive trio into a very promising quartet. First, last week China clearly informed all the interested sides that it did not intend to invest in the West financial system. Evil commentators immediately decided that it would leave nearly two trillion of the gold-monetary reserves in the country, causing overheating of the economy. However, it is possible to imagine some Chinese investments and loans in the Indian economy, which now make desperate attempts to save rupee from depreciation. The right amount of money in the right place at the right moment could help China to avoid the threat of a large-scale war in the region. But these are still conjectures. But it is a real fact that China politely but firmly pulls the frolicsome hands of the American bankers out of its pocket. Mr. Paulson, the U.S. Minister of Finance, for two days has been convincing the Chinese comrades not to restrain yuan. Yuan has even been tumbling for two days... But as a result, in the government mouthpiece «Zhenmin Zhibao» («People’s Daily») appeared a short comment, cautioning against the attempts to restore the «gold standard», they say, these are the intrigues of one-knows-who. One-knows-who was not taken aback. Almost at the same time «The Guardian» published the information about the report of the Commission on International Security, which stated the risk of increasing of the China's nuclear potential. Though the chairman of the Commission is neoconservative Paul Wolfowitz, and its conclusions are unlikely to be useful for the new administration, this week all have been not in the timing. There are signs that the European Central Bank has at last found out those who pinch coins from its pocket. Mr. Trichet announced the decrease of the interest rates to 2.5%, but suggested no plans of possible specific methods to control the economic situation. The Head of the ECB only mentioned the possibility of unconventional methods. Such a position of Trichet causes concern of the economists of the Royal Bank of Scotland and Goldman Sachs in deflationary aspects. Concern is also caused by the steady intention of the EU to regulate the rating agencies. According to some competent persons, this threatens with financial protectionism. Well, of course, with what else can the European control threaten to the American agencies... Growing disagreements between the transatlantic partners are still the most visible in the position of Germany. Unilateral actions of Germany and the EU really irritate the United States, and the strengthening economic union with Russia within the framework of orthogonal overcoming of the crisis by both countries could serve as an attractive model for the entire EU. The situation this year has been changing so rapidly that the reaction of Brussels hopelessly lags behind the events. A hulking bureaucratic machinery of the EU, an invaluable filter for any sudden movements in stable times, is now demoralized a little; its political credo «friendship in return for respect for human rights» has lost its relevance. As the example of the latest creations of the European Commission one can name the project of East Partnership of the EU without Russia, submitted by Jose Manuel Barroso this week. And finally, the «good» economic news: BRIC consumers will save the world economy. Do you still have money? Consume our financial services! Even Turkey, a furious opponent of the IMF, from the president up to a peasant, it is rumored, will ask $ 25 billion. What to speak about the long-suffering Ukraine? In the beginning of the week the Government of Ukraine has expressed its intention to hire the Western financial advisers. So said so done. By the end of the week, the country has been filled with the foreign business gurus, including the IMF Committee, which praised the processes in the Ukrainian economy. Among those «processes» one can mention the increase of gas prices for the population to 35%, the withdrawal of funds from deposits, the flow of migrants into the EU, the decline of hryvna. And also the debt to «Gazprom» and unclear fate of the gas contract with the Russian Federation for the next year. In Russia ruble has leaned a little - to the greater delight of the financial gurus from the outside. Do you remember what Paulson has advised to yuan? In my unenlightened view, the less the value of the currency is against, say, bi-currency basket, the more benefits one can buy in this country for euro and dollar. Among those «benefits» this week one can mark the beginning of construction of the Baltic Pipeline System - 2, the resumption of construction of the ice fleet, the ongoing construction of the railway. I will separately note a bright idea which has come into the minds of financiers: to establish the postal bank. It has a very great potential. Because, among other things, a parallel financial system, on which so much has been recently said from high rostrums, should allow the client to easily «surrender» money. The easier it is to pay for a service, the more often it will be used. And the branched ready network of post offices in the country – is not yet the machines to receive advance payments for telephone, but at least will not require large-scale construction of the offices for a new bank. But I have digressed. Among other events in Russia last week one can note the derangement by the Belarusian side of the meeting of the Union State of Russia and Belarus State Council. The following attempt of the State Duma deputy to smooth over the scandal by praising the partners shows that there are still hopes for convergence, although the BPS-2 will be led exclusively through the Russian territory. By the way, on gas. The Armenian section of the gas pipeline Iran - Armenia is completed, and it is clear what may discuss the Turkish and Armenian politicians at some prudent meetings through sensitive intermediary of Russia. If «Gazprom» is interested in the project of the pipeline, bypassing Georgia, the Iran - Armenia gas pipeline could become a chance for Europe, delivering the Iranian gas through the territories of Armenia to Turkey and further. That would be a good joke in the spirit of multi-polarity. Iran is actively seeking for allies, skillfully maneuvers and does not budge a jot from its positions. It is a decent sparring partner. And on oil. The OPEC countries cannot part with that much money against the background of the steadily falling oil prices. Representatives of the oil cartel during the whole month have been lamenting and calculating losses, weighing up how much they should cut oil production, and have not cut it down by a barrel. The reason is simple: apart from the OPEC, there are oil exporters, who may benefit from this decision. And that is why the chairman of OPEC suggested membership to Russia, Norway and Mexico. It is clear that these countries are not interested in the proposal. But gentlemen sheikhs are insistent. However, bearing in mind their role in organizing the oil shock, under the leadership of Henry Kissinger, Russia should apprehend their courtesy. The patriarch of the American foreign policy has recently approved of Obama and his team. I have already written about this in previous political reports, but repetition is the mother of learning: Obama has decided on seven members of his team. There is some talk that because of Ms. Clinton as the State Secretary the new administration in the White House may make uncoordinated movements in foreign policy. But for the time being these are conjectures, will see later. In addition to the fact that the court withdrew the charges against Vice President Cheney and the former Attorney-General Gonzales with involvement in violation of prisoners' rights, another event has happened this week in the U.S.: the Federal Reserve System has found a significant deterioration in the economy. Once this must have happened... The formal recognition of the problems has immediately called out in Latin America, which faces a shortage of credits. There were few talks before on the risk that the borrowers from Latin America and other developing economies would be «forced» out of credit markets by the U.S. budget deficit that next year could exceed $ 1 trillion. Belated actions of the Central American countries will hardly change anything fundamentally. Whatever a Bolivarian Chavez may do, it would not cancel the fact that the countries of the Western Hemisphere are a successful ground to implement the project «Globalization». None of them will be able to survive without Big Brother any longer. Let’s talk a little about military affairs. This week has been held a long-awaited summit of NATO, which finally dispelled the expectations of Georgia and Ukraine to squeeze through the doors of the alliance with the help of a powerful U.S. lobby. Instead, in April 2009 Albania and Croatia will be accepted. The Russian diplomacy can celebrate a partial victory, because instead the NATO countries supported the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system in Europe, what is not pleasant. One must assume that the appeal not to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad is unlikely to be heard by the Russian side. The issue of the pan-European security has been raised this week in Helsinki, where gathered the heads of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the OSCE countries. Considering the regional conflicts on the territory of the CIS, they nonetheless refused to review the role of the NATO in protecting Europe. Indeed, where is Nagorno-Karabakh and where is Europe? But here the OSCE made a regular curtsy to the Department of State, which, as it turned out, knows nothing at all about the proposals of Russia on the new European security architecture. In general, this is another stone to the scale with «Iskander» in Kaliningrad. Moreover, the U.S. military department has finally reported on the successful testing of a missile-interceptor. To raise the fighting spirit of its European allies, I suppose. And since it has become clear that Russia has its response to the launching of the missile defense elements into space, last week the chief of the U.S. Strategic Command called for the rapid modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In addition to the report on military laser and its improvement. Some believe that military lasers are designed for satellite wars. For example, against the systems for space reconnaissance of other countries. And finally - a few words about Africa. At the moment it undergoes three wars and cholera under the sensitive supervision of the British press. The wars are in Sudan, Congo and Somalia. There is an opinion that this is the cross of the interests of the U.S. with its AFRICOM and China, and, judging by the intensity of unfolding events, China does not intend to concede. Beyond the scope of the review have been left the problem of the disarmament of North Korea, the war of compromising evidence between Kokoity and Barankevich in South Ossetia (as always, the winners, having gone through fire and water, stumble over fanfares), the situation in Afghanistan and the Balkans and many other issues. Original version Õîðîøà ëîæêà ê îáåäó | 
