Registration / Login
text version
War and Peace

 Hot news

Main page » News » View
Printable version
Isn’t India’s SCO moment ‘pucca’ yet?
23.07.15 19:43 Global Security

The induction of India and Pakistan as full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO] constitutes a severe setback to the United States’ regional strategies. The western analysts have regarded the SCO as the “NATO of the East”. That the SCO territory is expanding and will include South Asia upsets the US interests profoundly.

Arguably, it is possible to co-relate it with the unseemly hurry with which the US is pressuring the GCC states to allow the deployment of a unified missile defence system in the Persian Gulf region. Ideally, the US would have deployed the ABM system in Afghanistan. The US-Afghan pact of 2014 provided the necessary legal framework, but the ground reality today is that any Afghan settlement involving the Taliban would involve the termination of long-term western occupation of the country.

The US still seems pinning hopes that the induction of India and Pakistan as SCO members could be stalled. A commentary by the US government-funded Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty last week noted,

  • The inclusion of India and Pakistan into the SCO does boost the group’s international profile, but it could come at expense of the Central Asian members.

Believe it or not, the RFERL actually sponsored a “panel discussion” to discuss “Are The Central Asians The Losers in SCO Expansion?”

The American participants claimed that Uzbek president Islam Karimov was manifestly unhappy about the SCO decision to induct India and Pakistan as members and conveyed his misgivings openly, and “other Central Asian presidents avoided making such comments, but that must have been on their minds also.”

An American pundit pontificated, “”now with the addition of India and Pakistan I think there’s a fear among some of the Central Asian countries that some of their voice and some of their decision-making will also be lost.”

Whereupon, another pundit promptly chipped in, “With India and Pakistan, now there’s four huge countries, nuclear powers, and four relatively poor and small and not-so-powerful Central Asian countries, so I think that there’s legitimate concern that [Central Asian members] would be outweighed in SCO decision-making.”

The RFERL adds, “It is easy to see why the Central Asians could be worried.” It estimated that it is the Kremlin which is getting India and Pakistan on board as fellow members in the SCO and “the timing was good for Russia.” Indeed, it saw a congruence of interests between Moscow and Beijing on this issue, too.

Listen to the fascinating RFERL podcast in full, if time permits. What a masterly propaganda ploy!

Even more fascinating is the commentary in the website of Eurasianet, a “sister publication” of the RFERL. It says Karimov actually sounded a word of caution on the SCO’s expansion, saying it “would not only change the political map, but would change the balance of power. This is not a simple issue, and it needs to be discussed.” It speculated wistfully that considering that SCO chairmanship has now passed to Tashkent, there might still be a miss between the cup and the lip for India:

  • And one official think tank scholar in Astana suggested that the planned expansion could be blocked. “De jure, the process has yet to be fully clarified. It is quite possible that an existing SCO member could block their entry,” said Sanat Kushkumbayev, deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, an an interview with the website Russia Direct. “Karimov noted with good reason that the entry of nuclear India and Pakistan to the SCO could change the balance of power inside the organization and internationally. There are many unresolved issues between Delhi and Islamabad, and how this will square with the SCO’s declared spirit of cooperation is unclear.”

Of course, the paranoia in the American mind is understandable. The heart of the matter is that the SCO’s expansion is happening against the regional backdrop of sharp decline in the US influence in the Eurasian region.

Defying all western propaganda, Russia and China are accelerating their cooperation and coordination of regional policies in Central Asia. Prestigious US think tanks have produced dozens of reports in the recent years, analyzing that there are serious contradictions and conflict of interests between Russia and China that put them at loggerheads in Central Asia. The US analysts often tried to play on Russia’s sensitivities by arguing that China is systematically replacing Russia as the dominant player in Central Asia.

Therefore, the decision to integrate the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union project and China’s Belt and Road initiative becomes a defining moment in Eurasian politics. Quite obviously, Moscow and Beijing have a shared interest in rolling back the US-NATO presence in the Eurasian region.

Does it all hark back to Halford Mackinder’s so-called Heartland Theory, which has been a geo-strategic theory that greatly influenced the US’ regional policies toward Eurasia for a century?

Yes, an understanding of the Heartland Theory may help grasp these developments in big-power politics in contemporary Central Asia. Let me retrieve from my Central Asia archives an excellent paper I read years ago, titled “Revisiting the Pivot: The Influence of Heartland Theory in Great Power Politics”, written with great prescience by two scholars at Macalester College, Minnesota. Read it here.

 

Ðóññêèé
Archive
Forum

 Exclusiveread more rss

» Destruction of Ukraine’s Central Bank
» The World files their 27 Grievances against the United States of America.
» Yom Kippur War Redux – Petrol D0llar’s Last Hurrah
» How the Alchemists saved the Planet in 2019
» What will the US Treaty of Paris look like?
» Addition by Subtraction, (x, y)↦x−y
» Too Little, Too Late, will there be a Romanov ending for the Sudairi Seven?
» Week 21: When economic arguments end, the arms race begins

 Newsread more rss

» Afghan Taliban leader accuses U.S. of creating doubts over pact
» Kyrgyz President Accuses Atambayev of Violating Constitution by Resisting Detention
» Chinese foreign ministry slams U.S. interference in Venezuela
» With an eye on Russia, China and a horse, Pentagon chief visits Mongolia
» Pentagon Claims Iran Uses GPS Jamming in the Gulf So It Can Lure and Seize Foreign Ships
» USAF X-37B Military Space Planes Mystery Mission Circling Earth Hits 700 Days
» China destabilizing Indo-Pacific: U.S. Defense Secretary
» EU must change its negotiating terms for Brexit, says Barclay

 Reportsread more rss

» A Brief History of the CIA’s Dirty War in South Sudan
» US GDP report: Keynes on steroids
» Are Russia and the US Finally on the Same Page in Afghanistan?
» The IMF Takeover of Pakistan
» Voices from Syria’s Rukban Refugee Camp Belie Corporate Media Reporting
» Report Shows Corporations and Bolsonaro Teaming Up to Destroy the Amazon
» Ukraine: the presidents change, but the oligarchical system remains the same
» The Cowardice of Aung San Suu Kyi

 Commentariesread more rss

» The Biggest Threat to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy? Washington Itself.
» Ukraine on the cusp of change
» India’s Looming Agricultural Crisis: A Unique Chance to Change the System?
» The Saker interviews Stephen Karganovic
» Media and Politicians Ignore Oncoming Financial Crisis
» In an astonishing turn, George Soros and Charles Koch team up to end US ‘forever war’ policy
» Vladimir Putin says liberalism has ‘become obsolete’
» You Are Fighting In The Most Important Battle Of All Time

 Analysisread more rss

» A battle for supremacy between China and the US
» UAE Withdrawal from Yemen
» US, Pakistan move in tandem to end Afghan war
» Is Baoshang Bank China’s Lehman Brothers?
» From the Green Revolution to GMOs: Toxic Agriculture Is the Problem Not the Solution
» OPEC+ oil supply cuts signal smooth Gulf sailing
» G20 Osaka: the end of American leadership?
» Trump’s Brilliant Strategy to Dismember U.S. Dollar Hegemony
 
text version The site was founded by Natalia Laval in 2006 © 2006-2024 Inca Group "War and Peace"