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| A Snow Dragon in the Arctic |
| 09.02.11 10:26 |
Asia rising |
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By Joseph Spears
China is stepping up its activities in a warming and changing Arctic Ocean Basin. While Beijings interests and policy objectives there remain unclear, it is increasingly active and vocal on the international stage on issues concerning the region.
To that end, China is actively seeking to develop relationships with Arctic states and participate in multilateral organizations such as the Arctic Council. The region includes a rich basket of natural resources. The US Geological Survey estimates that 25% of the worlds undiscovered hydrocarbon resources are found there, along with 9% of the worlds coal and other economically critical minerals. There is presently scarce open source information on Chinas Arctic policy and very few public pronouncements on the Arctic by Chinese officials. This article is an attempt to describe Chinas actions there.
With the worlds largest non-nuclear research icebreaker, Xue Long (Snow Dragon) China has embarked on four Arctic research expeditions in recent years. Chinas larger polar scientific research effort has seen 26 expeditions in the Arctic and Antarctic since 1984.
This past summer the vessel embarked on a research voyage to 88 degrees North latitude, which is only 120 nautical miles (222 kilometers) from the North Pole. Chinese research scientists from the fourth research expedition travelled to the North Pole via the vessels helicopter to conduct research, arriving at the North Pole on 15:38 pm (0738 GMT) Friday August 20, 2010.
It was another first for China and clearly highlights a changing Arctic, which is seeing decreasing and thinning sea ice year after year. A few years ago the journey would have been impossible with this ice-breaking research vessel because of the difficult sea-ice conditions and the thick multi-year ice. The same ice had traditionally served as a barrier to all but the worlds largest nuclear icebreakers that fly the Russian flag.
A range of estimates predict that the summer season could be ice-free as early as 2013, or as late as 2060. At an Arctic conference held in Tromso, Norway in January, US Rear Admiral Dave Titley stated, "We believe that sometime between 2035 and 2040, there is a pretty good chance that the Arctic Ocean will be essentially ice-free for about a month.".
Ice free does not mean no ice, as there would be increased frequency of broken ice and icebergs in certain waters. A few years ago, the thick multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean, which can be over 30 feet (9.1 meters) thick with pressure ridges. This would have been an impermeable barrier for a light ice-breaker such as the Xue Long.
With a warming Arctic, the multi-year ice is thinning and breaking up. What researchers are finding is that the multi-year ice is embedded in the light skim of first-year ice that covers the Arctic ocean in the winter. This thinner ice has allowed more wave action and wind fetch in the region, which has also arguably contributed to the loss of multi-year sea-ice. Water temperatures at depth in the Arctic Ocean also seem to be increasing. Scientists are uncertain of the causes of a warming Arctic but the open water is absorbing more of the suns energy and appears to be creating a positive feedback loop. A recent study has stated that increased emissions from Arctic shipping, which contribute black carbon to the atmosphere, could increase loss of sea-ice - through the carbon absorbing more of the suns energy - by as much as 17%.
On March 5, 2010, the official China News Service relayed comments made by Rear Admiral Yin Zhin with respect to the Arctic at the Third Session of the 11th Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), when he advised Chinese leaders not to fall behind on Arctic Ocean exploration.
"The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS, known as the Law of the Sea Convention], the North Pole and surrounding area are the common wealth of the worlds people and do not belong to any one country," said Zhin. He went on to say "China must play an indispensable role in Arctic exploration as we have one-fifth of the worlds population." He criticized some countries for contesting sovereignty over the region, which impacts other nations.
Was this a Arctic-specific statement or part of a larger strategy with respect to Chinas foreign policy approach to the Arctic Ocean Basin and international law? Or was this simply a restatement of existing Chinese policy on the Arctic or ocean issues generally?
Many commentators took Zhins statement as a new direction with China taking a more aggressive stature to the Arctic, predicting an increase in militarization. In recent years, Chinas military and especially its navy has been expanding. Chinas new approach seeks to enhance the perceived legitimacy of Chinese operations at sea.
This has led to recent incidents involving US vessels with in Chinas exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea allows foreign vessels including naval vessels the right of innocent passage in the EEZ. International law Professor Commander James Kraska in a number of articles has coined this concept or notion of "lawfare" whereby China seeks to use international law to advance its strategic interests.
In March last year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released the report "China Prepares for an Ice-Free Arctic", authored by Linda Jakobson. A China-based scholar for SIPRI, Jakobson held many interviews with Chinese officials and academics for the 16-page report, which summarizes the Chinese position and provides some insights into Chinas Arctic policy. It is a must-read document for those interested in Chinas Arctic and foreign policy in this warming region. The report states: Chinese officials have also started to think about what kind of policies would help China benefit from an ice-free Arctic environment ... Despite its seemingly weak position, China can be expected to seek a role in determining the political framework and legal foundation for future Arctic Activities [1]. The report argued that China was in a weak position because it is not a littoral state having no Arctic coastline or any sovereign rights to the continental shelf in the Arctic ocean. To date China has adopted a wait-and–see approach to Arctic developments, wary that active overtures would cause alarm in other countries due to Chinas size and status as a rising global power ... However, in recent years Chinese officials and researchers have started to assess the commercial, political and security implications for China of a seasonally ice-free Arctic region ... Chinese decision-makers, on the other hand, advocate cautious Arctic policies for fear of causing alarm and provoking counter-measures among Arctic states. [2] It is interesting that Zhins comments followed just a few days after the release of the SIPRI report. Is this a signal that China wishes to make its position clear on the waters outside the jurisdiction of the Arctic coastal states? There is some concern over Russias claim to the Lomonosov and Mendeleev undersea ridges, which transect the Arctic Ocean, because China and the rest of the world would be at a disadvantage over the seabed that is found in the Arctic Oceans doughnut hole, as its expanse of international waters is known.
In an earlier speech in Norway 2009, Chinas Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Hu Zhengyue said "China does not have an Arctic strategy," however, the SIPRI report held the country does have a clear agenda on the Arctic. Hu said, "When determining the delineation of outer continental shelves, the Arctic states need to not only properly handle relationships amongst themselves but must also consider the relationship between the outer continental shelf and the international submarine area that is common human heritage, to ensure a balance of coastal countries interest in the common interests of the international community" [3].
In June 2010 the Canadian International Council released "China and the Arctic: Threat or Cooperation for a Potential for Canada". In the report, Professor Frederic Lasserre examined Chinas recent Arctic history and provided a good overview of Chinas present state of affairs in the Arctic.
Professor Lasserre sees Chinas interests in the Arctic as rooted in science, economic interests or shipping potential, or in global political objectives. The analysis comes from a Canadian perspective but places Chinas action in a broader context and is a very useful document.
What does this mean and how does this affect the doughnut hole in the Arctic Ocean? The doughnut hole is the area of sovereign-rights jurisdiction outside the Arctic littoral states. It is the area of High Seas that is totally enclosed. In the Arctic Ocean, the five coastal nations exert sovereign rights in the EEZ of 200 nautical miles.
Under the Sea Convention, the five Arctic coastal states can exert a claim over the non-living resources (hydrocarbons) of the continental shelf under article 76, out beyond 200 nautical miles and out to an outer limit of 350 nautical miles.
The outer extent is based on the slope of the continental shelf and the depth of continental sediments, which is a scientific determination. This has seen the Arctic coastal nations collecting evidence on the geomorphology of this region. The Arctic coastal nations are submitting their claims to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). In the Arctic Ocean. It is thought that 88% of the seabed is subject to coastal state control if all the claims are accepted as presented.
Outside the EEZ (200 nautical miles) the waters in the Arctic Ocean are considered to be the High Seas under Part XI of the Law of the Sea Convention. The living and nonliving resources are held to be the common heritage of mankind. These are settled rules of international law. Zins comments read in conjunction with Minister Hu statement appears that there is something more must be considered in the particular circumstances of the Arctic Ocean when it comes to the Doughnut hole. What that is has not been clearly stated by China at this time.
Under the Law the Sea convention article 234 commonly called the ice-covered waters provision allows coastal states to take certain steps to protect the marine environment. Yet, there is no specific reference to any special factors or considerations to the High Seas in the Arctic Ocean under article 234. This appears to be a new and novel concept that China is advancing for future negotiations. There is some concern of Russias claim to the Lomonosov and Mendeleev undersea ridges which transect the Arctic Ocean because China and the rest of the world would be at a disadvantage over the seabed, which is found in the Arctic Oceans doughnut hole noted above.
The Arctic Council, is a high-level intergovernmental forum which addresses issues faced by the Arctic governments and the indigenous people The Arctic Council states include Canada, Iceland, Russia, Denmark, the United States and Norway Finland and Sweden.
The Arctic Council allows the number of observers to attend the Arctic Council and almost became an observer in 2008. Since that time China, Korea Japan and Italy have acted as ad hoc observers. Full membership is reserved for Arctic countries and indigenous groups. The Arctic Council does not deal with security issues and has no binding effect on the parties however it seeks cooperation on variety of issues and is the leading source of cooperation on Arctic issues.
The Arctic Council promotes "cooperation, coordination interaction amongst Arctic states". China was the first Asian country to seek observer status, which the EU is now also seeking. The EU wants to create an Arctic Treaty similar to the Antarctic Treaty for the region and released an Arctic policy in 2008.
The CIC paper in conjunction with the SIPRI report provides the best snapshot of what Chinas intentions are in the Arctic. It is clear that China has an agenda and is looking to use existing regimes to advance its interests at the multilateral and bilateral level. China has recently entered into bilateral discussions with both Norway and Canada. China has a research station in Ny-Alesund, in the Svalbard islands north of Norway.
Does that mean that China is taking a more proactive approach in the Arctic Ocean? At this point it is too early to tell. It is clear that the two papers released in 2010 provide a good summary of Chinas position in the Arctic based upon open sources. It does appear that the Law of the Sea Convention must be interpreted in the broader perspective of humankind. This will become clearer in further analysis in the coming years. Yet, there is some internal inconsistencies in Chinas position. As Linda Jacobson notes: There is some irony in the statements by Chinese officials: in the Arctic states to consider the interests of mankind so that all states can share in the Arctic. These statements appear to be contrary to Chinas long-standing principles of respect for for sovereignty in the internal affairs of other states. Based on official statements by the Chinese government and the other open-source literature written by Chinese Arctic scholars, China can be expected to continue to persistently, yet quietly and unobtrusively, push for the Arctic and spirit being accessible to all. In conclusion, with a warming Arctic, and no clear strategy as to Chinas intention in the Arctic Ocean Basin, it is difficult to predict with certainty Chinas long-term goals in the Arctic region. As set out above and from increased activity and interest it appears clear that China is moving forward to develop linkages and position itself for the opportunities that present itself in the Arctic in this century. The opportunity for China is simply too great. China is going to be a presence in the Arctic Ocean Basin. The Snow Dragon is comfortable and learning to swim very well in the warming Arctic waters. Other nations will need to engage China in the coming years.
Notes
1. Linda Jakobson, "China Prepares For an Ice-free Arctic," SIPRI Institute (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/2, 2010: 9.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
K Joseph Spears has degrees in biology, economics and law and is a principal of the Horseshoe Bay Marine Group. He recently contributed to the Arctic Councils Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report. |
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