I wrote ten days ago that I could hear the faint sound of the West beating the retreat in Ukraine. Now I can say the retreat is gathering momentum. The Barack Obama administration may have signaled that the worst is over in the standoff with Russia.
That’s how the meaning of the statement by US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland needs to be understood when she said today that, in principle, a rollback of sanctions against Russia is conceivable. Nuland said, “When the Minsk agreement (between Kiev and the separatists in southeastern Ukraine) is fully implemented, we can and will begin to roll back some sanctions. It is in Russia’s hands when that day comes.” (here). The point is, Nuland, who was the choreographer of the ‘regime change’ in Kiev in February, said this without Moscow prompting it. Admittedly, It does take some gumption for a superpower to make such abrupt U-turns in policies. Why did it have to happen so unceremoniously after the thunderous attack on the Russians by President Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly session in New York hardly a fortnight ago?
The answer lies in Europe’s unwillingness to tag along anymore with the Obama administration’s vengeful policies toward Russia. Vice-President Joe Biden now openly admits that Obama personally arm-twisted the European leaders to fall in line with the US’ sanctions against Russia. How often can he do it without a European revolt?
Europe cannot take the US pressure anymore. The sanctions are hurting many European countries who export agricultural products to Russia. Besides, the dreadful winter is coming and there is need for Russian gas — not only for Europe but also for Ukraine.
The World Bank is ringing the alarm bell that Ukrainian economy is shrinking by close to double digits this year and will continue the catastrophic slide at least for another 2-year period. The IMF made an even more dreadful estimation rceently.
Germany can’t take on the burden of bankrolling Ukraine. Chancellor Angela Merkel phoned up President Vladimir Putin on Thursday to discuss Ukraine. Significantly, Merkel ‘engaged” Putin in a wide-ranging conversation that touched on the Islamic State and Ebola — and, hold your breath, the ASEM 10 Summit scheduled to be held in Milan, Italy, on October 16-17.
Now, that last ASEM part is very interesting. The agenda of the ASEM 10 Summit includes such contemporary topics as the interdependence between Europe and Eurasia.
To be sure, Putin is attending this important meeting in MIlan that promises to bring him face to face with the European leaders. In sum, the ice will break in the standoff between Russia and the European Union. Simply put, European leaders are directly engaging Putin. Now, the countdown may be beginning for the rollback of the EU’s sanctions against Russia.
Of course, the German-Russian relationship is making all this possible, as Putin noted in his meaningful congratulatory message to Merkel on the German Unity Day. Putin’s message is meaningful, because without the push from Mikhail Gorbachev (despite reservations in many European capitals), the unification of West Germany and GDR wouldn’t have been possible in 1990 and Germany has a lot to be grateful to Moscow for that historic gesture.
There is a saying that misfortunes never come alone. So, perhaps, good fortunes, too – at least in this case of Russia’s standoff with the West. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has got a new secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg, former Norwegian prime minister, replacing Fogh Anders Rasmussen, whom Moscow distrusted. Putin has warmed up to the appointment of Stoltenberg with whom he apparently enjoys good personal equations.
At any ratee, in his very first press conference in the NATO Hqs in Brussels on Tuesday, Stoltenberg called for “a constructive and cooperative relationship” with Russia and for reconvening the Russia-NATO Council. Now, that wouldn’t have been possible without Obama’s consent.
How do we add up? The US is greatly distracted by the crisis in the Middle East — the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, in particular. Russia’s cooperation is useful. And as an old “Obama watcher’ I can tell you he doesn’t have his heart anymore to keep shepherding the Europeans toward a delusional frontline that never really existed vis-a-vis Russia.
And, with the US stepping back, things seems to be moving in the right direction. Europe, in a chastened mood, would be willing to accommodate Russia’s legitimate interests in Ukraine. The Milan summit will give some clues as to the way things are shaping up. Meanwhile, as to where Ukrainian politics itself is heading, read a sombre assessment by Deutche Welle. | 
