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Xi, Putin share bed, with their own dreams
15.04.13 18:07 Asia rising
By M K Bhadrakumar

The Chinese have a saying, "Dream different dreams while on the same bed" - meaning that even the closest partners are never alike in their minds. It is tempting to cast the China-Russia relationship in the spirit of the proverb.

But then, if Chinese leader Xi Jinpings recent visit to Moscow in late March drew enormous attention it is for a variety of other reasons as well. This was Xis first visit abroad as president and there was great attention paid to his first steps, which might help draw conclusions about his political orientations.

Besides, Xis visit to Russia took place against the backdrop of the United States "rebalancing" policy. The strategic partnership with its great northern neighbor assumes high importance for China when its ties with Japan have become tense over the disputed islands in the East China Sea.

Russia and China have begun coordinating on the issues pertaining to the US missile defense program. Over and above, they share common concerns over the working of the international system. However, in the event, Xis visit to Moscow also had a strong bilateral content. China has taken note of the angst in the Russian mind over Chinas phenomenal rise, and Beijing is keen to inject transparency and trust into the partnership.

The point to be noted is that this is a young relationship, relatively speaking, but with a huge backlog of history that neither side can easily forget.

The earliest signs that the two countries were contemplating moving into the same bed appeared as far back as 2001 during the visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to Beijing when he and the then Chinese president Jiang Zemin signed the historic Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the Peoples Republic of China and the Russian Federation.

The two statesmen conclusively laid at rest a deeply convoluted relationship. In the Chinese eyes hardly two centuries ago, Russia was an imperial power with predatory instincts that kept gobbling up vast chunks of its territories, only to become by the middle of the last century a mentor, guide and a guardian, and while the second half unrolled, almost became an ally.

Then by a quirk of fate, it became an adversary and before anyone could notice, an implacable enemy. The germane seeds of a genuine strategic relationship were sown as recently in 2003 during the visit by the former Chinese president Hu Jintao to Moscow, which marked a giant step forward in the Sino-Russian ties.

Suffice to say, it is relatively young strategic partnership in the annals of diplomatic history. Thus, when both sides avow today that there has been "continuity" in the development of their strategic partnership, it needs to be factored in that the timeline is actually of a mere decade.

Meanwhile, delicate political issues remain to be tackled. As China expands its influence in Central Asia, it could trample on the Russian sensitivities, while Beijing closely watches Russias strategic thrust toward Vietnam.

Catching the wind in the sail
Frank, friendly exchanges at the highest level at regular intervals become necessary, given the nature of the political system in both countries. The China-Russia relationship had lately touched a kind of plateau. The Chinese commentators have noted that Russia seems disinterested.

Russia remained neutral vis-a-vis Chinas spat with Japan. The foreign-policy elites in Moscow have their eyes transfixed on ties with Europe and the US. As the prominent Moscow expert Fyodor Lukyanov put it, "For Russia, its very important to find a balanced approach. China is very important, but its not the only partner."

To be sure, the Kremlin will seek to leverage its "China connection" in negotiations with the West so that the latter would accommodate Russian interests and cooperate with its aspirations to build an innovative economy.

It is a delicate diplomatic dance, because the Russian economy is also keen to tap into Chinas growth as an economic power. Putin told Xi that he wants Russia to "catch the Chinese wind in our economic sail. A dramatic increase in the Russian supplies of oil, gas, coal and natural gas to China is on the cards.

Russias Rosneft will be tripling oil deliveries to China from the current level of 300,000 barrels per day, which will bring it on par with the Saudi Arabian supplies to China.

The long-awaited trillion-dollar deal on Russian supplies of natural gas to the Chinese market is also getting close to an agreement. If the deal comes through by the end of the year as per current indications, starting in 2018 Russias Gazprom will deliver 38 billion cubic meters annually over a 30-year period with the option to expand the deliveries to 60 bcm.

But how this complex deal is likely to be clinched finally after protracted negotiations stretched over five years also throws light on the singularly unemotional and business-like Russian attitude.

Russia has been insisting on a price on par with what it was getting from its European customers - roughly US$400 per thousand cubic meters [Mcm], whereas China insisted on $250 per Mcm. Second, Russia was offering gas supplies from its East Siberian gas fields via the so-called Altai route, whereas Chinas preference was for supplies from a much shorter eastern route that could keep down the cost of transportation.

Moscow has now accepted the eastern route, which is a pragmatic decision, because Russias hope was to emerge as a swing supplier between Europe and Asia. On the other hand, the eastern route means that the cost of the gas falls significantly and comes much closer to the Chinese offer of $250 per Mcm.

Now indications are that for reducing the remaining price gap of some $50 per Mcm, China might be willing to make an upfront payment of $25-30 billion to the Russian gas company Gazprom that can be set off against the gas exports over time.

Gazprom needs to borrow at least $25 billion from financial institutions to fund this very project that would supply gas to China. Had it borrowed from the money market, it would have had to pay interest, while if China decides to give the money interest-free, the loan would bridge the remaining price gap. Indeed, this mega deal will be a game changer in the Russian-Chinese partnership

Meanwhile, the Chinese state media reported that during Xis visit, Russia and China signed two arms deals estimated to be worth over $3 billion, whereby China will buy 24 Russian Su-35 fighters and four Lada-class submarines. The four submarines will be jointly designed and built, two in each country. The deal signifies a resumption of Russian military sales to China after a 10-year gap.

Clearly, Russia is on the lookout to boost arms exports to China, which has a massive military budget, while at the same time it intends to keep India and Vietnam (which have troubled relations with China) also as its valuable customers. It is a tightrope walk, but then, arms exports are highly lucrative business.

Significantly, Xi became the first foreign head of state to visit the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Command Center of the Russian armed forces, including its Strategic Missile Forces and Special Forces. Curiously, the visit was arranged at Putins instance. Interestingly, Chinese Defense Minister General Chang Wanquan was a member of Xis entourage.

Neither a bloc nor a union, or an alliance
Clearly, what emerges is that the declarations made during Xis visit contain unprecedented wording in comparison with previous high-level Russian-Chinese pronouncements. The joint communique issued after XIs visit says, "Both sides will make developing the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation with the other side a priority in its foreign policy orientation" and would "resolutely back each others core interests in protecting their sovereignty, territorial integrity and security."

This common position has great value for Beijing at a time when deep security worries have arisen over North Korea, and territorial disputes with Japan and Vietnam have been creating tensions and China is badly in need of Moscows help to counterbalance the US "pivot to Asia.

Strong partnership with Russia enables China to acquire more flexibility in dealing with the various diplomatic challenges, but Xis manifest efforts to woo Putin will not mean that Beijing is snubbing Washington.

Clearly, the China-Russia partnership is more about tactical coordination, which augments the capacity for both to negotiate better with the US. Paradoxically, it is entirely up to the US through its bellicose policies to drive the two powers into a tighter embrace or an alliance - and that seems improbable too.

Xinhua news agency neatly summed up the meaning of Xs visit to Moscow:
Their [Chinese-Russian] relationship is not a bloc, union or alliance in nature as Beijing and Moscow pursue an independent and all-round foreign policy respectively. Their coordination on regional and international hot issues is aimed at building a more just and reasonable world order, rather than targeting any third party.

In a multipolar world, China does cherish faithful friendship with Russia and at the same time needs cooperative partnership with other big powers such as the United States and Europe. Beijing never seeks to foster a strategic partnership with Moscow at the expense of ties with any other country, but it has zero tolerance if the core interests are infringed, just as Moscow does.
In fact, Xis first official engagement with a foreign leader in the capacity of president was with the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, which took place in Beijing, notably, on the very eve of Xis departure for Moscow. Again, no sooner had General Chang returned to Beijing after the visit to Moscow, he received a phone call from US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to congratulate him on his appointment and to discuss, according to the Pentagon readout, "the importance of focusing on areas of sustained dialogue, practical areas of cooperation, and risk-reducing measures." They discussed the highly topical North Korean situation.

US Secretary of State John Kerry is arriving in Beijing on April 13, to be followed later in the month by the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey.

With a slight modification of the ancient Chinese proverb, one could say the Russian and Chinese dreams seem somewhat similar, but it isnt anywhere near saying the two partners have similar dreams.

M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including Indias ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
 

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