Registration / Login
text version
War and Peace

 Hot news

Main page » Commentaries » View
Printable version
Ukraine on the cusp of change
28.07.19 09:01 f.USSR
Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky celebrated his party’s big victory in the parliamentary election, Kiev, July 21, 2019

The thumping victory by the Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, securing an absolute majority of 253 seats in the 450 member parliament, can be viewed as a tectonic shift in the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia. The next big party in the parliament will be the pro-Russia Platform – For Life, which secured 44 seats. The stunning rout of the pro-western forces symbolised by former President Poroshenko’s Solidarity party (24 seats). 

The West must see the writing on the wall that the tide of opinion in Ukraine is overwhelmingly favouring the country’s reconciliation with Russia — a total negation, in other words, of the “regime change” through a US-sponsored colour revolution in 2014. The pro-western forces had let loose a campaign that the July 21 election was about Renewal (pro-west regime change in 2014) versus Revanche (rapprochement with Russia). The latter has won resoundingly. (See a commentary in the US government controlled Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty titled Renewal Or ‘Revanche’? Buzzwords Of Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections Forecast Tension Following Vote.)

In effective terms, the control of parliament consolidates Zelenskiy’s gip on political power and enables him to accelerate three things: one, the purge of the Poroshenko era personnel from the top echelons of the government most of whom are western nominees or proxies; two, a parliament that will cooperate with his legislative and reform agenda; and, three, robust efforts forthwith to bring the war in Donbas to an end and an improvement in relations with Russia.    

Moscow has every reason to be quietly pleased with the outcome of the July 21parliamentary poll in Ukraine. Did Moscow anticipate the election results? Possibly so — even if the scale of Zelensky’s victory might have surpassed expectations. President Putin voiced optimism on the eve of the poll saying that the two countries will mend ties. As he put it, “We [Russia and Ukraine] have many things in common, we can use this as our competitive advantage during some form of integration. Rapprochement is inevitable.”  

In fact, Moscow has already begun sensing that the Ukrainian government is no longer taking a hostile attitude toward Russia. The Kremlin noted last week that Kiev’s newly-appointed representatives in the contact group working on Donbas are taking a cooperative and constructive attitude, eschewing the negativism of the Poroshenko era. Besides, Zelensky has also signalled readiness to release from detention the editor-in-chief of the Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti, Kirill Vyshinsky. 

Zelensky can be expected to push for a radical fresh start in the policies, domestic and foreign. He has made it clear that he disowned the legacy of the Poroshenko presidency. He will now push through parliament his plan to extend a current ban preventing officials from the Yanukovych era (prior to 2014 regime change) from working in the public service to Poroshenko and his team. Legal prosecutions also seem possible, especially as Zelensky seeks to abolish the general immunity enjoyed by parliamentarians. These are hugely popular moves — and they will seriously debilitate the pro-western forces.

Zelensky’s projection of himself as a president for peace echoes the deep yearning of a big majority of Ukrainians for an end to the war in Donbas. “We are prepared to do everything required by the Minsk agreements,” he recently said in an interview with Deutsche Welle. He seems willing to make concessions to the separatists, as envisaged under the Minsk agreements — such as a measure of regional autonomy, a say in the foreign and security policies, the use of Russian language and so on. If he moves in that direction, a sea change in the climate of relations between Ukraine and Russia is possible. 

However, the complexity of the Donbas question should not be underestimated. The conflict is multi-dimensional and external powers — Russia as well as western powers — are deeply involved in Ukraine. The regime change in Ukraine in 2014 is at the root of it. Will the West let Ukraine slip out of its hands? Will Zelensky be allowed by the West to plough an independent furrow toward east? These are key questions today. The Russian attitudes will be largely conditional on that. For the moment, it does appear, though, that Ukraine is on the cusp of change. See a recent research paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs titled The Donbas Conflict: Opposing Interests and Narratives, Difficult Peace Process.



 Exclusiveread more rss

» Destruction of Ukraines Central Bank
» The World files their 27 Grievances against the United States of America.
» Yom Kippur War Redux Petrol D0llars Last Hurrah
» How the Alchemists saved the Planet in 2019
» What will the US Treaty of Paris look like?
» Addition by Subtraction, (x, y)↦x−y
» Too Little, Too Late, will there be a Romanov ending for the Sudairi Seven?
» Week 21: When economic arguments end, the arms race begins

 Newsread more rss

» Afghan Taliban leader accuses U.S. of creating doubts over pact
» Kyrgyz President Accuses Atambayev of Violating Constitution by Resisting Detention
» Chinese foreign ministry slams U.S. interference in Venezuela
» With an eye on Russia, China and a horse, Pentagon chief visits Mongolia
» Pentagon Claims Iran Uses GPS Jamming in the Gulf So It Can Lure and Seize Foreign Ships
» USAF X-37B Military Space Planes Mystery Mission Circling Earth Hits 700 Days
» China destabilizing Indo-Pacific: U.S. Defense Secretary
» EU must change its negotiating terms for Brexit, says Barclay

 Reportsread more rss

» A Brief History of the CIAs Dirty War in South Sudan
» US GDP report: Keynes on steroids
» Are Russia and the US Finally on the Same Page in Afghanistan?
» The IMF Takeover of Pakistan
» Voices from Syrias Rukban Refugee Camp Belie Corporate Media Reporting
» Report Shows Corporations and Bolsonaro Teaming Up to Destroy the Amazon
» Ukraine: the presidents change, but the oligarchical system remains the same
» The Cowardice of Aung San Suu Kyi

 Commentariesread more rss

» The Biggest Threat to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy? Washington Itself.
» Ukraine on the cusp of change
» Indias Looming Agricultural Crisis: A Unique Chance to Change the System?
» The Saker interviews Stephen Karganovic
» Media and Politicians Ignore Oncoming Financial Crisis
» In an astonishing turn, George Soros and Charles Koch team up to end US forever war policy
» Vladimir Putin says liberalism has become obsolete
» You Are Fighting In The Most Important Battle Of All Time

 Analysisread more rss

» A battle for supremacy between China and the US
» UAE Withdrawal from Yemen
» US, Pakistan move in tandem to end Afghan war
» Is Baoshang Bank Chinas Lehman Brothers?
» From the Green Revolution to GMOs: Toxic Agriculture Is the Problem Not the Solution
» OPEC+ oil supply cuts signal smooth Gulf sailing
» G20 Osaka: the end of American leadership?
» Trumps Brilliant Strategy to Dismember U.S. Dollar Hegemony
text version The site was founded by Natalia Laval in 2006 2006-2024 Inca Group "War and Peace"