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Leading Indicators: Off-the-Radar News Roundup
06.05.10 09:33 Global Security
- Taiwans vice defense minister emphasized that Taiwan will maintain defense capabilities against a potential Chinese attack, after controversial remarks by Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou raised questions about a fundamental shift in Taiwans defense posture. In an interview with CNN, Ma said," We will never ask the Americans to fight for Taiwan." The opposition claimed it was a change in policy, while Mas supporters suggested it was a prediction reflecting improved relations between Taiwan and the mainland.

- Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama formally ruled out the possibility of entirely relocating the Futenma air base outside of the Okinawa prefecture. Hatoyama blamed the decision on the need to maintain effective military deterrence, and apologized to the people of Okinawa for the confusion caused by his handling of the relocation, which was a central DPJ campaign promise. For Hatoyama, this marks the tragic phase of what had to date been low comedy. For the U.S., this could very well represent a pyrrhic victory, as it clearly illustrated that for Tokyo, Washingtons intransigence on the issue took precedence over domestic Japanese intransigence. Thats liable to leave a nasty after-taste.

- Meanwhile, Japan is getting old, demographically speaking. For the 29th straight year, the number of children under 15 dropped to a record low, also marking the 36th year in a row that the number has declined.

- Video footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il, filmed while he was en route to China for his current visit, suggests that his left leg and arm are paralyzed, consistent with the after-effects of a stroke.

- Sri Lankas parliament voted to extend by another month the state of emergency declared in 2005 giving the military wider powers to battle the now-defeated Tamil insurgency. The government claimed the extension was needed to counter efforts to revive the LTTE.

- Irans navy commander announced that the Iranian navy will stage another major military drill in the Persian Gulf, just weeks after the Revolutionary Guards staged their own war games there. Seems like a bonanza for U.S. naval intelligence analysts.

- Meanwhile, according to reports from Irans semi-official news agency, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has agreed "in principle" to Brazilian mediation to revive the nuclear fuel swap deal. The news here is that although Brazil has been acting in cooperation with Turkey on the issue, Iran seems to prefer giving Brazil all the credit. Thats no surprise, but confirms my suspicion that Iran would be uncomfortable giving Turkey -- which remains as much a rival as a friend -- such a prize.

- Syria obtained observer status in the WTO, an initial step toward full membership. The U.S., EU and Israel abstained from the vote, while Egypt played an active role in support of Syrias candidacy. Interestingly, the U.S. abstention came simultaneously with President Barack Obamas decision to renew economic sanctions against Syria, the wording of which has caused some in Syria to worry about an imminent U.S. or U.S.-sanctioned Israeli attack.

- Bulgarias ambassador to Russia said his government is not engaged in official talks with the U.S. over hosting components of a planned missile defense shield on Bulgarian territory.

- Royal Dutch Shell announced that it spilled nearly 14,000 tons of crude oil in the Niger Delta last year, as a result of attacks on wells and pipelines by local militants.

- In a fresh embarrassment for the Spanish EU presidency, all the nations of South America except for Colombia and Peru have decided to boycott the EU-Latin America summit, to protest the EUs invitation of Honduras President Porfirio Lobo. Keep an eye out for an announcement from Lobo declining the invitation as a way out of the impasse.

Research by Kari Lipschutz.
 

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