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WAR and PEACE
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| No orbital leap in Sino-Indian ties |
| 17.10.14 12:47 |
Asia rising |
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By Anand V
The future of Sino-Indian ties seems to be on an upward trajectory under the new government in India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India wants to advance its relations with China to the next level to fuel much-needed growth. China has also been seeking to build stronger ties with India, eyeing the huge market and emerging geopolitical dynamics which suggest that Indias ties with the US and Japan are going to improve.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yis visit to India in June as an envoy of President Xi Jinping, immediately after the swearing in of the new government, suggested increasing proactiveness in courting India. This was a result of Chinas perception of Modi as a pragmatic businessman based on the nations experience in dealing with him during his tenure as the investment friendly chief minister of Gujarat.
Bilateral relations since then have seen high-level visits taking place on a monthly basis, culminating in Xi visiting India during September. Indias National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, was sent to Beijing a week in advance to prepare the ground for Xis visit, during which he noted that the bilateral relations are poised for an "orbital leap".
Indeed, the countries have signed 16 agreements with a focus on investment, cooperation and exchanges. The commitment shown by China to establish industrial parks in Gujarat and Maharashtra with an investment of US$20 billion over the next five years symbolizes a robust mutual understanding.
A five-year trade and economic development plan has been signed which will help in achieving balanced trade. Other notable agreements included a new route through Nathu La for the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra, cooperation on strengthening railways and creation of "sister" cities and provinces.
China has been recently very active in courting partners from other spacefaring nations for its own space station, which aims to establish by 2022 and which will replace the International Space Station headed by the US.
India has been steadily showcasing its prowess in space technology and the recent success of its Mars Orbiter has brought it attention on a global scale. Indias achievements in the space sector have been providing impetus to China to initiate bilateral space cooperation. The agreement signed during Xis visit on peaceful outer space co-operation has opened a new and key sector of engagement.
Chinas emphasis on exploring civilian nuclear cooperation with India since its Premier Li Keqiangs visit in 2013 was reiterated during Xis visit. China has also been seeking markets for its fast growing nuclear reactor industry.
India is certainly such a market without equal in the energy sector. The decision to include joint military exercises also signifies the addition of a new chapter to bilateral relations. However, Chinas nuclear cooperation with Pakistan and its attempt to militarize and weaponize space are dominant features in these strategic sectors - the trust deficit remains the weak ground on which the seeds of such cooperation in strategic areas have been sown.
Needless to say, the bedrock of this trust deficit is the unresolved border dispute between the two countries, and nothing substantial have been achieved so far in this regard. Neither a clear nor a rough timeframe has been set for a resolution, even though there have been optimistic views on a possible resolution within the tenure of both countries current leaderships, which are seen as highly decisive.
Starting from the late 1980s when the ice broke between the two neighbours, all the advances made in the bilateral relationship have been based on the premise of pursuing cooperation by keeping the boundary dispute resolution in the backburner. Moreover, attempts on resolving the boundary issue also might bring in more complexities on either side which can set back the relations, especially because the borders are inextricably linked with the geopolitically sensitive region of Tibet.
Domestic politics in both the countries as well as the Sino-Pakistan all weather friendship and geopolitical ambitions also remains critical factors which could hinder the boundary dispute resolution, especially as the joint statement envisages "sensitivities for each others concerns and aspirations".
The recent transgressions and standoffs over the Sino-Indian border areas, from Depsang incident in 2013 just before the visit of Li Keqiang to the most recent ones in Chumar and Demchok during the Xis visit, have led to the crystallization of the trend of border management. This trend is effectively pushing the boundary resolution agenda further into the future, as the trust required for advancing bilateral relations will increasingly be drawn from effective border management.
The Border Defense Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) signed between the two countries in 2013 is a significant indicator of the growing reliance on border management mechanisms. Both the neighbours are also conscious that border resolution cannot be done in haste.
Another major obstacle to progress is the issue of trans-boundary river waters. The talks over water diversion from River Brahmaputra due to Chinas construction of dams on it appear to have entered the doldrums. Though the joint statement has expressed Indias "appreciation" to China on providing limited hydrological data, the issue needs to be resolved as soon as possible before it emerges as an insurmountable hurdle for bilateral relations in the coming years.
A deficit in the balance of bilateral trade and low market access to Indian investments in China on areas of its critical strength like IT and pharmaceutical industries remains a continuing concern. Even though China has expressed assurance of taking measures to address Indias concerns in these areas, there is certain pessimism of it being realized due to the recent thrust given in China for innovation led growth and its plans to compete with India in the services industry.
However, India seems to have drawn up an alternate strategy of attracting Chinese investment instead of exports and thereby balancing the bilateral trade, especially with the new "Make in India" initiative. In addition, India must also make proper use of the opportunity presented by the deepening of economic reforms and opening up in China under Xis administration to advance its economic interests.
Indias participation in Chinas Maritime Silk Road project will prove to be essential for the orbital leap in bilateral relations in the next few years. India has remained ambiguous in response to this ambitious proposal from China, despite it being embraced by other maritime nations of South Asia. Xi visited Maldives and Sri Lanka before coming to India, and has been successful in selling the concept to the respective leaderships in the two countries.
Understandably, China has failed to secure support from India on its grand project during the visit. By becoming part of the project, India can also benefit from the infrastructural networks created by it in the Indo-Pacific. India can also seek to act as an important link between the maritime and continental Silk Road, especially with its prospects of getting into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization becoming more optimistic.
However, Indias probable concerns about China using the Maritime Silk Road to advance its naval ambitions are valid. Nevertheless, India is geostrategically placed to naturally ensure the security of the Maritime Silk Road. India can use this aspect to its advantage to keep a check on Chinas advances in the region which could undermine Indias interests. Therefore, India should become not just a commercial stakeholder, but also a security determinant of the project.
If India delays in supporting the project, it will give China the excuse to bring in its naval forces into the Indian Ocean for protecting the route. India should not lose out on the timely strategic benefits which will emerge from this project.
An orbital leap in Sino-Indian relations will realistically happen only under the shadow of an unresolved border issue and other core geopolitical differences.
The need of the hour for India is to resume the deepening and widening of bilateral cooperation with an increased vigor, while remaining mindful of the lingering trust deficit. The opportunities and the imperatives certainly exist for both India and China to work together and to assume the responsibilities for leading world affairs.
Anand V is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University located in the state of Karnataka in India. |
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